The unprecedented effects of the COVID-19 crisis have brought the economies around the world to a grinding halt. While its long term impacts can have consequential effects and may push the world into economy recession, the immediate effect is already seen in lesser economies like Nepal. With images of returnees from India swimming through the mighty Mahakali river defying the border lockdown to the pleas of those trapped in their makeshift shelters in gulf countries circulating in social media, the already pitiful situation of the Nepali foreign migrant workers is exacerbated by the COVID crisis.
Between 2008 and 2018, Nepal government has issued labor permits to about 3.5 million people. In a country of nearly 30 million, it is nearly 10 percent of the total population. The number could be much higher as the official data does not account undocumented migration. It is believed that nearly 5 to 7 million Nepali reside abroad either temporarily/permanently or as seasonal migrants. Considering the unofficial labor migrants and foreign students nearly 8 to 9 million Nepali live in foreign lands. Now with the COVID crisis, if not all but a staggering number of people are either willingly or forcefully returning back to their homeland. The remittance that contributed nearly 25 percent to the GDP is likely to decrease significantly pushing back the economic growth achieved since 2016, in that aftermath of the 2015 earthquake when foreign remittance grew. Around 3 hundred thousand people have already come back since the lockdown and the numbers are likely to increase once the lockdown is lifted. Managing such an influx of people is already challenging the managerial capacity of the all tiers of government. In absence of adequate testing and dismal quarantine facilities especially in the open border area in the south, the returnee migrants have no other choice than running away from such facilities. Since the first handful of COVID cases in Nepal was brought by foreign migrants, these returnee migrants are associated with being the vectors of the disease. They have been stigmatized and demonized in their community. Yet another problem with increased population can be increased unemployment and hence also increase food insecurity especially in the hilly regions of the country where with massive male outmigration since last couple of decades has decreased agriculture productivity. The government as of yet do not have a plan to provide employment to these returnee foreign workers and students. Unemployment, hunger, widespread class disparity in Nepal can lead to community tensions and social unrest.
Nonetheless, with effective government planning and intervention, this present situation can also be a blessing in disguise. The people who are coming back are eithersemi/skilled young people or students in higher education. The already in operation Prime Minister Employment Program can be reconsidered to accommodate returnee migrants in employment opportunities. It can be a great opportunity for Nepal to revive its agriculture production thereby creating food sufficiency domestically. With local government in place, it can play an important role in providing conducive environment for the returnee migrant workers to use their foreign acquired skills to become entrepreneurs. One way could be providing soft loan and encouraging the community to consume domestic production. For a country like Nepal, the COVID situation as much as it is a crisis is also an opportunity to retain its young population within the country and use the acquired skill domestically to increase domestic production, consumption and export to revive the economy in the post-pandemic world.
(This blog is a synthesis of discussion carried out in the Nepal in and After the Pandemic seminar series. While the words are of the author, the ideas and concepts belong to the presenter and the participants of the discussion}
Published on 2020/05/14
